With April series having expired, expect markets to turn volatile

Markets have a mind of their own and the five trading sessions last week were of a different kind. How markets change colour almost every day, just beats me.

On Monday and Tuesday, markets opened with an upside gap and closed upwards but the difference between the opening and the closing was very small.

Effectively, volatility saw intraday movement drop many notches. Wednesday was a quiet day. Thursday was April futures expiry day. It began like any other day of the previous week, on a quiet day and then saw very sharp upward movement in the last hour of the day. NIFTY on Thursday gained 168 points on a net basis and 265 points from the low of the day.

Friday was the complete opposite, where markets lost through the day and were down 151 points on a net basis and were down 235 points from the high of the day to the close.

At the end of five different days of the week, BSESENSEX gained on four of the five trading sessions and lost on one. BSESENSEX was up 641.83 points or 0.88 per cent to close at 73,790.16 points, while NIFTY gained 272.95 points or 1.23 per cent to close at 22,419.95 points.

The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.53 per cent, 1.85 per cent and 2.10 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 3.96 per cent while BSESMALLCAP was up 3.97 per cent.

The India Rupee gained 13 paise or 0.0.16 per cent to close at 83.34 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on three of the five sessions and lost on two. At the end of the week, Dow was up 253.26 points or 0.67 per cent to close at 39,239.66 points.

The 18,000 crore follow-on offer from Vodafone Idea Limited was well received by investors and was oversubscribed. The QIB portion was subscribed 19.31 times, the HNI portion was subscribed 4.54 times and the Retail portion was subscribed 1.01 times.

Overall, the issue was subscribed 6.56 times. Shares issued through the FPO listed on Thursday, April 25. The previous day’s close (Wednesday) was Rs 13.09. The discovered price was Rs 12 and the closing price was Rs 13.89 on listing day. The share gained Rs 2.89 from the issue price or 26.27 per cent. The share gained a tad on Friday and closed at Rs 14.01, up 3.01 or 27.36 per cent.

There is a roadshow of Indegene Limited which will tap the capital markets with its fresh issue for Rs 760 crore and an offer for sale of 3,62,91,497 shares as per DRHP. The price band, date of issue opening and closing and the size of the OFS would be announced through a newspaper advertisement. The roadshow will be held in Mumbai on Monday, April 29.

Results season is on and we have not had spectacular results from the few that have declared results so far. One is waiting for it to happen so that leads can be taken and investors look at opportunities that exist in the marketplace.

Two of the seven rounds of voting for the general elections have been completed. The third round will be held on May 7. Results will be declared on June 4.

April futures expired on Thursday, April 25 on a very buoyant and positive note. The NIFTY April series gained 243.45 points or 1.09 per cent to close at 21,570.35 points.

To put things in perspective, the gains on Thursday, which was expiry day, were at 167 points. The first day of the new series of May, saw NIFTY lose 151 points on the very first day. Call it by any name, the Bulls won the war and the series on Thursday and lost it on Friday.

Coming to the markets in the week ahead, we have a trading holiday on Wednesday, May 1. There would be a holiday in most of the global markets as well. However, the week would be divided into two equal halves of two days duration each, making markets that much more volatile.

Levels of 75,124 points, which was the previous tops and 22,775 would be very strong resistances. On the support side, lows made last week at 71,816 points and 21,777 points would act as strong supports. If these are violated, then one could see markets slipping to 71,100 and 21,550 points respectively.

The trading strategy for the week ahead would be to trade on the long side with extreme caution on account of the mid-week holiday. Buy on strong dip and sell on any strong rallies would be the order of the day. Markets are yet trying to establish a comfortable trading zone for themselves.

Trade cautiously.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)