Constituency watch: Underdogs like AISF, SUCI determining factors in five-cornered contest at Bengal’s Jaynagar

Jaynagar Lok Sabha constituency in South 24 Parganas district of West Bengal is poised for a five-cornered contest in the Lok Sabha elections, with representatives from two smaller parties emerging as potential game-changers for the three heavyweight candidates.

Two-time Trinamool Congress (TMC) MP Pratima Mondal, BJP candidate Ashok Kandari, and Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) candidate Samarendra Nath Mandal are the key contenders in the race.

However, the spotlight is also on Socialist Unity Centre of India (Communist) candidate Niranjan Naskar and All India Secular Front (AISF) candidate Meghnath Halder, who could disrupt the electoral dynamics and will be successful in being the ‘mood-spoiler’ for the three heavyweight candidates from this constituency.

Jaynagar stands out among the 42 Lok Sabha constituencies as the one where SUCI(C) has considerable influence, particularly in Kultali and Jaynagar Assembly constituencies.

In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, SUCI(C) leader Tarun Mondal was able to bag victory in this erstwhile RSP stronghold for the first time, though it was achieved because of the seat-sharing agreement with TMC.

Similarly, AISF’s presence could also challenge TMC in Assembly constituencies under this Lok Sabha seat, including Canning-Paschim, Canning-Purba, and Magrahat-Purba, which have significant minority populations.

Political analysts suggest that SUCI(C) and AISF might erode the traditional vote banks of TMC and RSP, more than doing the same with the devoted BJP voters.

First, RSP and SUCI(C), both being Leftist parties, there is always a possibility of a split among the left-inclined voters in the constituency between these two forces.

Secondly, the common factor between TMC and AISF is that minority voters are assets for both, and in that case, any division in the vote bank can prove to be advantageous for BJP.

Meanwhile, this time, BJP’s Ashok Kandari is banking upon the combination of two factors, the first being consolidation of Hindu votes and the second being division in the anti-incumbency and the Opposition’s support base.

Going by past poll statistics, Jaynagar is supposedly a safe bastion for the ruling TMC. In 2019, even amid a strong BJP wave in West Bengal, TMC’s Pratima Mondal won by a margin of around 2.2 lakh votes.

Again, in the 2021 West Bengal Assembly polls, TMC candidates got elected from all seven Assembly constituencies under the Jaynagar Lok Sabha constituency.

This constituency had been a traditional stronghold for RSP, with the party candidate Santa Kumar Mondal getting elected for eight consecutive terms from 1980 to 2004.

The pattern changed for the first time in 2009, with SUCI(C) candidate Tarun Mondal, with the backing of TMC, getting elected from Jaynagar. Thereafter, Pratima Mondal was elected for two consecutive terms in 2014 and 2019.

Jaynagar is nationally acclaimed as the production hub of ‘Moa’, a typical Bengali sweetmeat prepared out of a mixture of toasted rice, jaggery and condensed milk.

‘Jaynagar-er Moa’ was given a Geographical Indication Tag in 2015, which enables the product to be protected from unauthorised uses and piracy.

Jaynagar’s cultural significance is matched by its political importance, with over 15.40 lakh eligible voters shaping the fate of the candidates.