UP: Samajwadi Party faces its biggest challenge in third phase polls

The third phase of elections in Uttar Pradesh will pose a major challenge for the Samajwadi Party since this phase marks a shift from the Jat belt to Yadav land where Yadav-Muslim equations will be on the test.

The 10 Lok Sabha seats going to polls in the third phase on May 7 are — Sambhal, Hathras, Agra, Fatehpur Sikri, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Etah, Badaun, Aonla and Bareilly.

The BJP won eight seats in 2019 while SP won two seats — Mainpuri and Sambhal.

The third phase is also crucial for the Samajwadi Party because three of the five members from the Yadav family are candidates in this phase. They are Dimple Yadav from Mainpuri, Akshay Yadav from Firozabad and Aditya Yadav from Budaun.

The Yadav family members had won all these seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Significantly, there were only five seats that the SP had won that time.

However, they lost Kannauj, Firozabad and Budaun in 2019 when Akhilesh Yadav won the Azamgarh seat while SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav emerged victorious from Mainpuri.

The third phase will focus on the significance of OBCs, including Yadavs, Lodhs, and Kachhi/Shakya/Murao communities as deciding factors in many constituencies, alongside the continued influence of Muslims and Jats in certain others.

Etah, Firozabad, Mainpuri, Budaun and Sambhal have a significant presence of Yadav voters who, along with Muslims, become a formidable vote bank.

Muslim voters play a decisive role in Sambhal, Bareilly, Aonla, Pilibhit and Budaun. Etah, Mainpuri, Fatehpur Sikri, Agra and Firozabad also have a sizeable Muslim population.

In this phase, the SP has never won in Hathras, Fatehpur Sikri, and Bareilly.

Similarly, the BSP has never been able to win the Etah, Budaun, Aonla, Bareilly, Mainpuri, Agra and Hathras seats.

Sambhal: Sambhal has been a strong SP stronghold and SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav went to the Lok Sabha twice in 1998 and 1999 while senior SP leader Prof Ram Gopal Yadav won in 2004. The BSP won the seat twice in 1996 and 2009.

In 2019, veteran SP leader Shafiqur Rahaman Barq won but after he passed away recently, the SP has fielded his grandson Zia-ur-Rahman Barq. The BSP has also fielded a Muslim candidate Shaulat Ali, making the contest triangular.

Hathras: The BJP has been winning this seat, reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC), without a break since 1991. In 2009, the RLD won this seat as a pre-poll ally of the BJP. The Congress last won here in 1971 while SP and BSP have never won.

The BJP, this time, has fielded Anoop Valmiki while the SP and BSP have given the ticket to Jasveer Valmiki and Hembabu Dhangar, respectively.

Agra: The BJP has won this reserved seat five times since 1991, three times in a row since 2009. BJP’s SP Baghel, Union minister of state, won the Agra seat in 2019. The BJP has repeated the same candidate this time. The SP has chosen Suresh Chandra Kardan while the BSP has fielded Pooja Amrohi.

Fatehpur Sikri: The BJP won this seat twice in 2019 and 2014 and the BSP once in 2009. In 2019, the BJP’s Raj Kumar Chahar won this seat, defeating the Congress’ Raj Babbar. The BJP has retained Raj Kumar Chahar and the Congress has fielded Ramnath Sikarwar. The BSP has relied on a Brahmin candidate Ram Niwas Sharma.

Firozabad: This seat elected SP chief Akhilesh Yadav in 2009 and his cousin Akshay Yadav in 2014. The seat also scripted the defeat of Dimple Yadav in a by-poll in 2009 when Congress’ Raj Babbar defeated SP.

For 2024, the BJP has named Vishwadeep Yadav while the SP has repeated Akshay Yadav.

Mainpuri: Said to be a Yadav citadel, Mainpuri has sent SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav to the Lok Sabha five times. The SP has been winning this seat since 1996. The Congress last won here in 1984. In 2019, Mulayam Singh Yadav won by defeating BJP’s Prem Singh Shakya. In 2024, BJP’s Jaiveer Singh is challenging the SP’s Dimple Yadav.

Etah: The BJP has won the seat seven times since 1989. In between, the SP won this seat twice. In 2009, Kalyan Singh won as an Independent supported by the SP. BJP’s Rajveer Singh, son of Kalyan Singh, won this seat in 2014 and 2019. The party has made him its candidate again in 2024.

Budaun: The SP won the Budaun seat continuously from 1996 to 2014, but it was wrested away by the BJP in 2019. Aditya Yadav, Shivpal Yadav’s son, is making his debut from this seat now.

This time, the BJP has replaced the sitting MP Sanghmitra Maurya with Durvijay Shakya.

Aonla: The BJP has won this seat six times since 1989. The SP has won twice. The Congress won last in 1984. The Janta Dal-United (JD-U) also won once in 2004. The BJP candidate here is Dharmendra Kashyap who had won the seat in 2014 and then 2019.

The BSP has fielded Abid Ali and SP has named Neeraj Maurya as its candidate.

Bareilly: The BJP has replaced its eight-time MP Santosh Gangwar, who continuously won from 1989 till 2019, barring 2009 when the Congress won the seat. While the BJP has fielded Chhatrapal Gangwar from the seat, Praveen Aron is the SP-Congress alliance’s candidate.