Constituency watch: TMC’s advantage is three-way division of anti-incumbency votes in Barasat

Despite a BJP wave in Barasat Lok Sabha constituency in North 24 Parganas District this time, the factor that is keeping the ruling Trinamool Congress a bit ahead is the three-way division in the anti-incumbency votes because of the All India Secular Front (AISF)’s decision to field a candidate there.

However, there are certain factors that can make things uncomfortable for the three-time Trinamool Congress Lok Sabha MP from Barasat, Dr Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar.

The first is the absence of the erstwhile TMC District Secretary in North 24 Parganas and former West Bengal minister Jyotipriya Mallick, who is currently in judicial custody because of his alleged involvement in the multi-crore ration distribution case.

Mallick used to fine-tune the ruling party’s organisational network in North 24 Parganas District.

The second factor is the substantial presence of Matua voters in two Assembly constituencies under Barasat Lok Sabha, namely Habra and Ashoknagar.

Matuas are a Backward Class community who came as refugees to West Bengal from Bangladesh.

Considering the gush of excitement among them over the recent CAA notification, there is a possibility of a vote swing in these two constituencies.

Then there is the factor of a continuous increase in the BJP’s vote share since the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.

In 2014, the BJP increased its vote share at Barasat to 27.75 per cent from a meager 5.39 per cent in 2009. In 2019, the saffron camp further increased its vote share to 38.57 per cent.

These are some of the positive factors for the BJP candidate from Barasat this time, Swapan Majumder.

However, all is not hunky-dory for Swapan Majumder and there are some challenges for him as well.

The first factor is that in the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections Trinamool Congress candidates got elected from all the seven Assembly constituencies under Barasat Lok Sabha seat.

The second is the AISF’s decision to field a candidate from Barasat, thus turning it into a four-cornered contest involving Trinamool Congress, BJP, AISF and the All India Forward Bloc.

That probable three-way division of anti-incumbency votes is a factor of comfort for the ruling party this time.

While the AISF fielded Tapas Bandopadhyay, the Forward Bloc candidate this time is Sanjib Chattopadhyay.

However, Chattopadhyay was not his party’s first choice as the Forward Bloc initially announced the name of Probir Ghosh.

However, within a couple of days the party leadership decided to drop Probir Ghosh because of his alleged association with the teachers’ wing of the BJP.

Significantly, Ghosh Dastidar is not considering the division in anti-incumbency votes as a factor at all. According to her, the people of Barasat will vote in the name of development and that will be the deciding factor.

Barasat is known for having elected iconic Forward Bloc leader Chitta Basu four-times as its MP.

The constituency also chose famous dermatologist Dr Ranjit Kumar Panja of the Trinamool Congress as its MP twice.