Indian rupee to trade in Rs 83.25–83.75 band against USD during Q1FY25

The Indian rupee will trade in the narrow band of Rs 83.25– 83.75 against the US dollar in the remaining period of Q1FY25, a top economist at the credit rating agency CARE Ratings said on Friday.

“We expect the USD/INR to trade in the narrow band of 83.25–83.75 in the remainder of Q1FY25. RBI interventions are expected to limit any volatility,” Chief Economist Rajani Sinha said.

According to her, the inflation in the US has surpassed the market expectations for four consecutive months, aggravating the inflationary concerns.

In its May policy, the US Federal Reserve acknowledged limited further progress towards its inflation goal and highlighted that the inflation path remains uncertain. Markets expect US interest rates to stay higher for longer and are pricing in just one rate cut in 2024, Sinha said.

While FPIs have pulled out of Indian markets in April, FPI inflows are expected to rebound following India’s inclusion in the JP Morgan bond index in June, she said.

Meanwhile, experts are waiting for the US job market report which would likely to show that the labour market there remains strong.

“While US non-farm pay-roll additions are expected to slow in April, they are expected to remain well above pre-Covid levels. The US unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged,” Sinha said.

According to Jateen Trivedi, Vice President Research Analyst, Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, the market participants are eagerly awaiting the US nonfarm payroll data along with the unemployment data.

“These releases are key indicators that will likely keep market participants active as they provide insights for the Fed’s monetary policy decisions,” he said.

On Friday, the rupee traded within a range of 83.33-83.45, exhibiting minor strength after a positive gap at opening. However, prices drifted lower from 83.33 to 83.45 before closing around 83.42, Trivedi said.