Poll picture shows INDIA bloc winning in Kerala: But will it be Cong or Left?

Even before the poll dates were announced one thing was certain in Kerala, that the winner would be the INDIA bloc.

Over the years it has been the traditional rivals in Kerala, the ruling CPI(M)-led Left and the Congress-led Opposition which have been engaged in a do-or-die poll battle, as the BJP-led NDA in Kerala has always finished a distant third.

In the 2019 polls the Congress-led UDF won 19 seats, the Left only one seat and the BJP was just a runner up in the high-profile Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency and a poor third in the remaining seats.

With regard to the vote share, the UDF secured 47.48 per cent, the Left Front 36.29 per cent and the NDA a mere 15.64 per cent votes.

In these General Elections, the BJP is expressing the confidence that it will not just be an ‘also ran’ political front, but could well give a huge surprise.

However, with the April 26 polls fast approaching, things have become clear and the only question that remains to be answered is: Which of the INDIA bloc partners will emerge the winner?

According to a few pre-poll surveys, the UDF appears to have a clear edge, though its vote share is likely to fall, with the Left and the NDA eating into it.

A political analyst on condition of anonymity pointed out the one big difference this time that has emerged is contrary to the earlier polls, if the BJP increases its vote share it will benefit the Left, but this time there is a doubt if it holds good for all 20 seats.

“It has emerged from a few poll surveys that in some constituencies the benefit of an increased share of BJP votes might help the UDF candidates.

“However, the most crucial factor which might come into play and the Left is hoping for, is that the Muslim votes will swing to its side. Then one might see a different result compared to 2019, with the Left increasing their tally,” said the analyst and expressed doubts if the BJP will be able to give a jolt to the INDIA bloc.