Portugal to form minority government under far-right Luís Montenegro following tight elections

In a decisive turn of events in Portugal, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has appointed Luís Montenegro, leader of the Democratic Alliance (AD), to try forming a minority government.

This decision emerged after an extensive evaluation and discussion phase with political figures, solidifying Montenegro’s position. “The AD won the election … [so] the president … decided to nominate Luís Montenegro as prime minister,” the president’s office said in a statement.

The AD emerged narrowly ahead in the recent parliamentary elections, capturing 80 of the 230 seats, marginally surpassing the Socialist Party (PS), which secured 78 seats, and the far-right Chega party, achieving 50 seats.

Montenegro has vowed to avoid forming a coalition or any informal agreements with Chega. He aims to reach an understanding with the Socialist Party to back a legislative agenda.

The Socialist Party, under the fresh leadership of Pedro Nuno Santos, has committed to acting as a responsible opposition, signaling openness to negotiate on common grounds, particularly concerning public sector salary hikes.

André Ventura, the leader of Chega, has expressed an eagerness for participation in the government in return for support, warning of potential political instability if his advances are rebuffed.

Despite these challenges, some political analysts remain optimistic that a minority government could still find a way to function effectively, highlighting the potential for agreement on key policies between the AD and PS and a general disinterest in causing a political upheaval.

Yet, Montenegro confronts internal challenges within his own party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), from members pushing for a solid majority government possibly through a pact with Chega.

A critical test for Montenegro’s impending minority government will be the approval of the 2025 budget. Failure to pass this budget might trigger a new election, posing a significant obstacle for the government’s sustainability.